Both exports and imports rebounded into an expansion of +1.7%/+4.6% yoy in Apr (-4.2%/-12.8% yoy Mar24). Trade surplus recorded at US$3.6bn (consensus at +US$3.1bn, trade surplus at US$4.5bn in Apr24). The rebound in exports was coming from oil&gas at +7.2% yoy (-4% yoy in Mar24), while rebound in imports was from non-oil&gas +5.7% yoy (-16.7% yoy in Mar24).
In terms of usage, imports of consumer goods drop to +0.6% yoy in Apr24 (+5% yoy in Mar24), aligned with the end of the Eid festive season. In addition, imports of capital goods rebounded to +13.6% yoy (-21.7% yoy in Mar24),a positive indication of FDI return post-the national election event. In the meantime, exports of non-oil&gas were supported by the rebound in CPO exports at +6.7% yoy (-7.4% yoy in Mar24). CPO exports was volume driven, since CPO price was decreasing by -4.1% yoy (-1.2% yoy in Mar24)
We see the trade surplus to be normalizing along with commodity price situation. We are on the view that GDP growth will decelerate to c.+5% yoy in 2Q24 (+5.1% in 1Q24),as no festive event will occur during the quarter.




Sumber : IPS RESEARCH