Company Update / Property / IJ / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s): RyanDimitry ;Anthony
- 1Q24 net profit of Rp331bn (-44% yoy/-46% qoq) came below ours/cons' FY24F estimates at 17/15% due to FX loss. Core profit was in-line.
- 1Q24 presales of Rp385bn (+29% yoy/+20% qoq) was in-line with our/company's targets at 26%, driven by VAT exemption sales.
- We fine-tune our FY24/25F by -2/-4%, changed our valuation method to combination of P/E and disc. to NAV: resulting in lower TP of Rp 485.
1Q24 results: headline profit miss due to FX loss, but in-line core profit
booked 1Q24 net profit of Rp331bn (-44% yoy/-46% qoq), forming 17/15% of our/cons' FY24F (vs. 5Y average of 21%) - below due to forex loss of Rp128bn in 1Q24 (given 's outstanding bond of US$400mn due in FY28). Stripping this off, core profit reached Rp468bn (+4% yoy/-20% qoq), which was above our FY estimate at 24%, but in-line with consensus at 21%. Gross profit came at Rp852bn (+14% yoy/-4% qoq), in-line with our/consensus' estimates at 25/24%. GPM of 56% (+168bps yoy/+112bps qoq) was driven by recurring GPM of 55% (+316bps yoy/+271bps qoq), offsetting the decline in non-recurring margins of 58% (-364bps yoy/-387bps qoq) due to product mix. Revenue came in at Rp1.5tr (+11% yoy/-6% qoq), also came in-line.
1Q24 presales: in-line with our/company's target
1Q24 presales of Rp385bn (+29% yoy/+20% qoq) was in-line with our/company's targets at 26% - above its 5Y average of 24%, driven by Apartment sales of Rp229bn (+50% yoy/-3% qoq). Note that the majority of projects that were sold in 1Q24 was VAT exempted such as Pakuwon Permai Clayson/TP6 Condo/Pakuwon City Bella/Amor, which made up for 22/19/15/12% of 1Q24 presales.
Relatively unchanged net cash position
In 1Q24, remained in net cash position along with a total cash level of Rp8.2tr (+9% yoy/+8% qoq) and a total debt of Rp6.3tr (+5% yoy/+3% qoq). expects to maintain its cash position in FY24-25F.
Reiterate Buy with a lower TP of Rp485/share
We revised down our FY24/25F earnings by -2/-4%, mainly to factor-in FY23 and 1Q24 data points, as well as the forex loss booked in 1Q24. We reiterate our Buy rating on with lower TP of Rp485/share, based on a blended-valuation of P/E multiple (new target of 12.5x; -0.5 SD) and disc. to NAV (new target of -71% vs. -57% previously, at -1 SD). currently trades at -74% disc. to NAV (vs. 5-yr mean of 59%). Risks are weak presales demand and purchasing power.
Sumber : IPS