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US Markets opened the seasonally weakest month of the year with exactly the kind of volatility that historical pattern would suggest. September has averaged a -0.8% loss for the S&P 500 over the past three decades -- and this year's version is compounding that seasonal headwind with a genuine geopolitical shock.
- A surge in oil prices rippled through global markets, hitting stocks and bonds on worries that higher energy costs will fuel inflation and force the Federal Reserve to boost rates.
- The S&P 500 fell -0.7% Tuesday, with the Nasdaq's chipmaker rout driving its worst session in two weeks, down -1.3%.
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A Bloomberg gauge of global sovereign bond yields climbed to 3.72% -- the highest since mid-2008 -- rising for a fourth consecutive session with Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 3% for the first time since 1996.
> Traders now price an almost 70% chance of a Fed hike this month, up sharply from levels just a week ago.
Gold fell to a two-week low, down -2.7% to $4,331, as rising yields and a firming dollar pushing down non-yielding bullion, while WTI surged -5.2% to $90.22, Brent jumped +4.6% to $94.65 -- with European gas prices also hitting a three-year high.
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Against a genuinely difficult global backdrop, the JCI delivered a standout session. The index rose 1.14% to 6,599.94 Tuesday -- closing above its MA100 for the first time since MSCI 's frontier-downgrade warning rattled markets back in January.
> Foreign investors recorded a Rp2 trillion net inflow. Trading was led by (Rp1.41 trillion turnover, +7.29% on its gasification project) and (Rp1.31 trillion turnover, +4% on stellar recovery earnings).
The data underneath the rally is genuinely encouraging;
- Business confidence hit a seven-month high, even as manufacturing PMI dipped into contraction in August.
- Inflation ticked up to 3.19% but remains comfortably within BI's 1.5-3.5% target range.
- Indonesia posted an unexpected $0.13 billion trade surplus in July, ending two consecutive months of deficit -- driven by stronger-than-expected export growth.
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o Monetary Policy
House of Representatives formally approving Destry Damayanti as Bank Indonesia's governor for the 2026-2031 term -- the first woman to definitively hold the role.
o Palm Oil
Palm oil futures rose as much as 2.4% to 5,013 ringgit/ton in Kuala Lumpur, as smoke and reduced sunlight threaten fruit growth and operational disruptions with farm workers being drafted into firefighting efforts reduce output in Indonesia.
o
Recorded the biggest single-day foreign inflow of the year -- Rp838 billion -- on the back of stellar earnings recovery.
> When a single session's inflow becomes the year's largest, it signals genuine conviction building, not just opportunistic buying.
o
Signed a non-binding indicative term sheet with Danantara Investment Management for up to Rp2 trillion in convertible funding, aimed at expanding its mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) business.
Corporate Calendar
02/09: IPO Offering-Start: SWAP
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03/09: Cash Dividend Cumdate:
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Economic Calendar
1. US - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
2. US - Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul)
3. US - Crude Oil Inventories
4. US - Beige Book
Suspensions
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