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Wall Street stayed defensive ahead of Wednesday's inflation data, with the S&P 500 extending its retreat from record highs -- S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Dow -0.3%.
WTI held near $83 after a nearly 11% four-session gain, Brent near $89 --as Iran reiterated it will keep Hormuz shut until its demands are met-- even after briefly dropped earlier on Pakistan's optimism about a potential arrangement.
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Wednesday's CPI is the week's key data point with economists expect headline inflation to rise just 0.1% in July, following June's 0.4% decline -- a reading that would likely ease some of the anxiety within the Fed after three officials dissented in favor of a hike in July.
> A cooler-than-expected print would reinforce the case for a patient Fed; a hot surprise would quickly reverse that narrative.
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Gold pulled back from a two-month high, down 0.5% to $4,369 ahead US CPI print.
However, structural demand story remains intact for gold: China's central bank added 20 tons of gold in July -- its 21st consecutive month of accumulation and the biggest monthly addition since October 2023.
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The JCI fell -1.53% to 6,267.88 Tuesday (briefly stood at its EMA50 support), pulling back from its recent approach toward bull-market territory on a weaker Rupiah, the crude oil surge, lingering questions around BI independence, and caution ahead of MSCI 's August index review.
> Indonesia remains under MSCI 's freeze (no new inclusions), and investors are specifically worried about two things: further stock exclusions, and weight reductions for existing large-cap names.
o Copper
A boiler leak halted the Gresik smelter processing Grasberg ore, with repairs targeted for completion by end-September. Freeport is now aiming to restart its Manyar smelter earlier than planned to offset the gap. The timing intersects with a genuinely tight global copper market -- LME prices have held above $14,000/ton for six straight days, an unprecedented streak, with near-term delivery premiums at their highest since October.
o Coal
China's coal imports hit a 2026 high in July, but the rebound appears tied to short-term safety-inspection disruptions following May's fatal Shanxi mine accident, rather than a durable demand shift. Analysts expect domestic Chinese output to normalize toward 2025 levels by August, which would likely ease China's need for imported coal.
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Economic Calendar
1. US - IEA Monthly Report
2. US - OPEC Monthly Report
3. US - CPI (YoY) (Jul)
4. US - CPI (MoM) (Jul)
5. US - Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
6. US - Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)
7. US - Crude Oil Inventories
8. US - WASDE Report
9. US - 10-Year Note Auction
10. US - Federal Budget Balance (Jul)
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