Morning News Summary (04/06/2026)

The fragile US-Iran ceasefire cracked overnight as the two sides clashed again, with Kuwait and Bahrain caught in the crossfire.
- S&P 500 -0.7% snapped its nine-day winning streak.
- Asian stocks set for losses this morning.
- Oil jumped +2.4% to $96, treasury yields climbed, gold fell -1.4% below $4,430/oz, dollar rose +0.3% as higher oil prices & signs of labor-market strength fueled bets the Federal Reserve's next rate move will be a hike.
But a late development changed the tone -- Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in a joint US-backed statement, pulling oil back from its highs.
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The JCI -4.1% closed at its lowest since June 2021, down -31% year-to-date -- the worst performing index among 90+ global benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg. Materials fell -9.1%. The Rupiah weakened to Rp17,950, down -7% this year -- the worst performing emerging market currency globally. The index has fallen every month in 2026 and is on track for its worst annual loss since 2008.
- The selloff reflects a market pricing in multiple simultaneous risks -- fiscal concerns, sovereign rating anxiety, commodity policy uncertainty, and a record low currency -- all at once.
- Markets that fall this fast, this far, on this much bad news simultaneously are often closer to a bottom than a continuation.
Financial System Reform: What Was Agreed
Parliament and government agreed on significant financial system reforms worth watching:
- BI's mandate expanded to include economic growth promotion alongside price stability
- Parliament gains binding evaluation powers over BI, OJK, and LPS
- Indonesia Stock Exchange to be demutualised
- New rules for Danantara debt papers and a strategic commodities bourse
The mandate expansion is the most debated element -- asking BI to simultaneously defend the Rupiah, control inflation, and promote growth is a difficult balance. Lawmakers acknowledged BI's independence must be preserved as the foundation of monetary credibility (Reuters)
Forex Reserves and Rating Watch
Forex reserves fell to a near two-year low as BI intervened to support the Rupiah. The central bank reiterated its commitment to "necessary, consistent and measured steps" to maintain stability. Fitch and Moody's remain on Negative outlook. S&P noted that revenue recovery could limit Indonesia's rating risk -- keeping an outright downgrade from being the base case for now (Bloomberg)
Corruption Probe Hits Free Meals Program
Prosecutors named former free meals program chief Dadan Hindayana and two deputies as corruption suspects, searching headquarters less than 24 hours after his removal. The $15 billion program is Prabowo's signature policy. The swift legal action shows institutions responding -- though the political optics add another layer of uncertainty at a difficult time (Bloomberg)
Telcos
In May26, TSEL 's data yield and average package prices improved, while

EXCL

/ISAT recorded optical declines in trends. The weaker

EXCL

/ISAT trends were mainly driven by more-for-more offerings and the addition of smaller packages. Overall, May26 trends remained positive for ARPU improvement. Maintain Overweight on the sector.
Corporate Calendar
04/06: Cash Dividend Cumdate:

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