Company Update / IJ / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s): Ryan Winipta ; Reggie Parengkuan
- reported 9M24 NP of US$273mn (+13% yoy), which came slightly below ours and consensus forecasts (72% IPS/70% consensus).
- 3Q24 NP stood at US$72mn (-44% qoq/-41% yoy) as associate income contribution from declined by -59% qoq.
- We maintain our NP forecast for now and kept our TP unchanged at Rp1,700/share with a Buy rating.
3Q24 review: robust upstream dragged down by
reported 9M24 NP of US$273mn (+13% yoy), which came slightly below ours and consensus forecast (72% IPS/70% consensus). In 3Q24, NP stood at US$72mn (-44% qoq/-41% yoy) dragged down by , while 's upstream business remain relatively resilient in spite of lower oil price environment (-6% qoq) as revenue remain flattish qoq at US$618mn while GP margin improved by +110bps qoq to 37%, supported by lower costs from Power business. Opex trended slightly higher to US$46mn (+4% qoq), but nevertheless, 3Q24's EBIT and EBITDA grew by +4%/+2% on qoq basis. Below operating line, associate income from contributed only US$29mn to (-59% qoq) with no extraordinary items below the line, resulting in an NP of US$72mn in 3Q24.
: flat revenue qoq but NP significantly declined in 3Q24
On 100% basis, recorded US$946mn net revenue in 3Q24 (flat qoq), as export activity has restarted after obtained their export permit for copper concentrate in Jul24. However, despite its flattish revenue trend, 's NP significantly declined by -59% qoq to only US$140mn in 3Q24 (or US$29mn attributable to ). As FS is yet to be out, we think the decline in NP could be explained by potentially higher cash costs or one-off costs as gold price rise (+6% qoq) shall cancelled out the copper price decline (-6% qoq) in 3Q24. Overall, we expect to maximize its concentrate export until the permit expired in Dec24 while retaining some of the copper for smelter trial & ramp-up purposes in 4Q24F.
Maintain our Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp1,700/share
We maintain our FY24F/25F/26F NP forecast for now pending details from result (currently on limited review), as achieving consensus FY24F forecast would largely dependent on the associate income from . Hence, we maintain our Buy rating and kept our SOTP -based TP of Rp1,700/share unchanged. Downside risks include lower oil price environment due to soft China oil demand and outcome of US election, and higher than expected cash costs per boe. Key catalysts: M&A activities, particularly on maturing oil & gas fields that has expertise on.
Sumber : IPS