GOTO - 3Q24 result: strong GTV growth improvement with positive adj. EBITDA
Thursday, October 31, 2024       09:54 WIB

 Company Update  /   Consumer Discretionary/  IJ  /   Click here for full PDF version 
 Author(s):  Ryan Winipta  ;Reggie Parengkuan 
  • reported Rp137bn positive group adj. EBITDA in 3Q24, an improvement vs. Rp48bn group adj. EBITDA loss in 2Q24.
  • The result was in-line with guidance and better than our expectation as fintech +ve adj. EBITDA shall came faster in 4Q24F (vs. end FY25F).
  • Strong ODS GTV growth in 3Q24 (+21% yoy/+7% qoq) along with improved adj. EBITDA profitability underpins our Buy rating.

3Q24 pro-forma review: on track to achieve adj. EBITDA breakeven
reported Rp137bn group adj. EBITDA in 3Q24, an improvement vs Rp48bn loss in 2Q24, which we think is in-line with market expectation and management guidance of achieving adj. EBITDA breakeven on FY basis in FY24. GTV grew by +13%/+37% qoq/yoy driven by growth in ODS and fintech business, while net revenue stood at Rp3.9tr (+7% qoq/+8% yoy), owing to higher GTV growth and take-rate improvement particularly in Fintech business (Fig. 2).In 3Q24, net e-commerce service fee from Shop Tokopedia stood at Rp172bn (+10% qoq), in-line with guidance of US$40mn p.a. Overall Adj. EBITDA as % TPV also improved for both ODS and fintech, which led to positive group adj. EBITDA achievement in 3Q24.
Segmental: ODS and fintech adj. EBITDA margin improved
On segmental basis, ODS gross revenue grew by +22% yoy or +8% qoq to Rp3.6tr, thanks to higher GTV and slightly higher take-rate on qoq and yoy basis (Fig. 2). ODS' adj. EBITDA improved to Rp156bn (+73% qoq) as its CM also improved to 0.9% of GTV (vs. 0.6% in 2Q24). Fintech gross revenue grew by +30% qoq/+128% yoy, as gross take rate improved by +10/+30bps qoq/yoy, respectively. Nonetheless, fintech adj. EBITDA remained at negative territory at Rp65bn loss in 3Q24, although has continuously improved on qoq basis. Consumer loan outstanding loan grew by +24% qoq to Rp4.3tr in 3Q24.
Maintain Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp105/share
We fine-tuned our adj. EBITDA FY24F forecast by Rp59bn to Rp119bn in FY24F (Fig. 3) as the 3Q24 adj. EBITDA of Rp137bn was better than our initial expectation, while our FY25F/26F adj. EBITDA forecast remain unchanged. Hence, our SOTP -based TP of Rp105/share remain unchanged. As a result, we re-iterate our Buy rating on . Downside risks include intensifying competition from Grab and other on-demand services players, and lower than expected GTV growth.


Sumber : IPS
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