Sector Update / Automotive / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s): Aurelia Barus ; Halima Yefany
- In May26, 4W wholesale volume declined -14% mom, while Astra's market share improved to 56% as its volume only fell by -7% mom.
- Rate hikes are expected to adversely impact more on 4W, resulting in softer 2H26 wholesale volume, while 2W volume should remain resilient.
- Our call is under review following 's sharp share price correction.
May26: broad-based mom volume weakness on fewer working days
4W wholesale volume fell 14% mom to 69.2k units in May26, led by the drop in BYD (-81% mom) and Mitsubishi (-52% mom). 5M26 volume reached 359k units (+13% yoy), representing 44%/42% of our and Gaikindo's full-year estimates (3Y mean: 40%). Meanwhile, Astra's market share improved to 56% in May26 (vs. 52% in Apr26), as its volume only dropped by 7% mom to 41.8k units. Astra's 5M26 volume stood at 185k units (+8% yoy), or 44% of our full-year estimate (3Y mean: 41%). We view both industry and Astra volumes as in-line, as we expect volume moderation in 2H26F amid rising interest rate environment.
xEV: steeper decline than national volume amid weaker BEV deliveries
In May26, xEV volume fell 26% mom to 17.4k units, underperforming the broader market due to weaker BEV sales (-37% mom). The decline was largely driven by BYD and Denza, whose volumes fell 81%/80% mom. Based on our channel checks, BYD's weaker sales were mainly due to depleted inventories of key imported models (M6 and Atto 1), with deliveries from local production expected to commence by Aug26. In 5M26, BEV volume reached 57.4k units (+79% yoy). Meanwhile, hybrid volume declined 8% mom to 7.5k units, bringing 5M26 volume to 32.5k units (+44% yoy). PHEV volume fell 10% mom to 503 units, with 5M26 volume reaching 2.6k units (+430% yoy).
2W sales was soft in May26 but still on track against our/AISI FY26E
2W sales declined 8% mom to 479.4k units in May26, bringing 5M26 volume to 2.6mn units (+1% yoy). The performance was in line with both our estimate and AISI 's target in FY26F at 41%/40% (3Y mean: 42%).
Rate hikes likely to adversely impact 4W than 2W demand
On 9th Jun26, BI further raised the policy rate by 25bps to 5.5%, following a 50bps hike on 20th May26, citing concerns over Rupiah weakness. Our economist believes further rate hikes remain possible should the Rupiah remain above Rp18k/US$. Based on historical trends, the impact is likely to be more pronounced on 4W demand than on 2W. Historically, there has been a lag of around 6-9 months between the first-rate hike and a meaningful slowdown in 4W sales. In contrast, 2W demand remained relatively resilient (see Figs. 8-9).
Sector call under review
YTD26, 's share price has corrected by as much as 28%, its deepest decline in 2 years, following the less favorable TSR outcome and a broader macro-driven market sell-off, before rebounding 10% over the past 6 trading days. We are reviewing our calls, balancing potential upside from RKAB normalization on its mining arm against downside risks to its automotive and financing businesses from higher interest rates.
Sumber : IPS